The Intuition of the Internet

About skydiving, space, geometry, speed and some gas...

2012-02-07T22:45:00.000+01:00

It is with astonishment that I read the magic attempt of a 23 mile high skydive. That is two thirds short to the Kármán line, aka. proper outer space. I wish the very best to this extraordinaire adventurer. Here is the bbc link. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16922438

Amazing 23 mile high skydive

The most striking fact to myself, besides the incredible fall, is that the adventurer is ballooned upwards on a three hour lift-off flight on a chamber pressurized by a gas powered balloon, with no other extra fuel consumption except for the device itself. The high speed fall does not involve any fuel consumption.

The skydive range, or distance travelled of this skydive, will depend on the height at which the fall starts, the steering angle at which the skydiver could fly - if he does - when starts the fall, at the very ceiling, and the allowance by traffic control on which routes could be authorised to super sky-dive. He is likely to be not allowed for safety measures in such an early flight.

The beauty of free fall on a spherical surface pays off the effort. The skydiver could increase the distance travelled by falling at an increasing angle. In less than an hour one could skydive anywhere within a phenomenal range petrol free. The distances and time travelled could beat those of the airliners which keep their height constant, only 8 miles high rather than 23, and that, around an spherical earth equates to a long time to reach a to b in comparison to an equivalent geometrically minded flight, with falls such as this.

Extraordinary stuff. The commercial implications of such geometrical super-skydives are to be seen but one can easily observe the potential once this could be mastered. My very best wishes to the skydiver and their team and best of luck!

Social Media?, What about Social Movies!

2011-12-07T20:09:00.001+01:00

Socially, Facebook is great today. It´s a great relational tool to socialize but I find is missing out on voice and video. Everyone is in Facebook. But what is Facebook doing for us?

Google+, being the latest social framework to pop out, is a neat wrap-up service of all-of-the-above and is the one, in my opinion, that has a better sense of direction on what needed doing. They already have many services available. Such as Google hangouts. Few people are using G+ so far, as Facebook is so busy. So, are people gonna switch to Google+ just for video and voice? And is that all from Google for now, I wonder? Do people care about circles?

The way I see it, voice and video are at the beginning of a deep-er social media transformation mixing social content, movies, events, google hang-outs, voice, video conferencing, sharing any experience together as if we were all here.

I find Google+ video chat hangout and their friend circles a great way of the beginning of that social interaction. But still, there is potential for more communication linkage. Google TV is great but there is scope for social advances in between.

I foresee value in watching movies together on the web, incorporating video conference, voice, movie sharing. Imagine being able to mark a scene and share it with your voice on top. Or watch the same movie in your preferred language. Leave comments in a scene. Finding movies with similar scenes. Finding the latest movies of that type. Inviting you to watch movies others liked.

Stuff like that. Mixing all content types could be an interesting product for the new media.

I am surprised Facebook is doing nothing in that direction.

I think the potential for social fun is great in the social media arena.

Social Games: Charging for fun

2011-12-03T12:36:00.001+01:00

I was recently asked to sort of beta test a new social game. The game is one of many facebook games, which work on a interest basis. These are not subscription based. This game cost structure is based on game dependency. The more you like it the more you p(l)ay. The more you go into the game, the more you are going to pay.

The idea behind it is that the game is meant to be a long lasting experience where you play slowly for a very long time, for a great gaming experience, and where, if you are impatient, things get done emulating a scarce economy, but at a growing cost. A caveat is that one can not expect gamers to have the motivation to have a running gaming thread experience throughout their social web experience. At least historically I haven´t done. In my view, these modern social games do interact positively with your friends, to a small scale, which is a very positive factor on this true web based game interfaces; which they are. The interfaces are of a sound standard which is good work. They are also creative and with cool music and so forth.

But these new games do strongly appear to follow a pay-as-you-go model in which they basically milk away their best (or only) customers by charging for any possible fun that happen to generate within the game experience.

pay as you go gaming? I don´t think so.

They´re not certain of the generated but certainly ensure no generated fun goes away uncharged.In my opinion overcharged customers will swiftly fly away to greener pastures (aka less social but more affordable gaming) and the game will never actually stick and be used by masses of people, no matter how good the gaming experience were. At least I do not believe it will like that. My perception of fun might well be biased by impatience, and these games might be the more fun than I perceive.

I may be wrong on this one but I think in the web world you shall not underestimate any customer ability to see through what are very much looking like elaborate cow-milking scheme of what´s after all just a game.The best strategy, price wise, in my opinion continues to be a fee scheme for your customers, and if you are not charging for one, maybe charge your customers only for special delicatessen goodies. Charging for customers for any positive fun, will get us all uninterested in a very short while, out-budgeted and we´ll just go to do something more economically and sociable rewarding like watch a movie or work on your project.

And what´s worse, assuming what your charging for is fun is a mistake.

Could true reasoning systems bring real-time legal systems...

2011-05-21T12:55:00.002+02:00

There are many projects on the works within the semantic and ontology field. I look forward to testing what comes out. Over a year ago I was shown very interesting approaches to state of the art reasoning systems by a world-known modeller. I was impressed on the potential semantic reasoners had, and to some degree, I continue being impressed.

At the time, these semantic and reasoner approaches were very close to being able to read any text within reason, and model the contents through advanced modelling languages. At the time, and within the constraints of the state of the development, I thought the potential was very exciting.

As far as I know, the results haven´t come out onto the market yet, so I guess the work did not evolve as expected. Or simply I am no longer up-to-date on that. If and when these systems come out; soon I wish, these could trigger systems to being not just info storers and indexers, but also readers and true reasoners of content.

I like to envisage the potential these tools would feed onto some sectors, which I find very interesting indeed and, humbly, revolutionary.

The legal community could have a revolutionary set of reasoning tools, able not only to store and index documents, but to model content views as per the configured reasoner. This could bring exciting tools onto the legal field; from working out texts meaning, to dynamically modelling country legal systems, and even to have decisions automatically made for target texts from a configured reasoning perspective for a given legal world... real-time.

El idioma de la inteligencia

2010-07-26T17:14:00.015+02:00

Es cuestión de tiempo para que el progreso de la inteligencia informática se nos eche encima poco a poco. Para poner sólo un ejemplo, piénsese que en mil novecientos noventa Gary Kasparov afirmaba sin sombra de duda que jamás una computadora tendría ni siquiera la remota posibilidad de derrotarlo. No en vano había jugado con las mejores computadoras, cuya habilidad para jugar al ajedrez, comparada con la de Kasparov, era patética.

Pero las computadoras ajedrecistas han realizado un constante progreso, a razón de cuarenta y cinco puntos por año. En mil novecientos noventa y siete, una computadora superó a Kasparov, al menos en ajedrez.

Se hicieron entonces muchos comentarios sobre que existían comportamientos humanos mucho más difíciles de imitar que el juego del ajedrez. Es verdad. En muchos campos la capacidad de las computadoras es aún ínfima.

Pero como las computadoras continúen adquiriendo capacidad a una velocidad de tasa exponencial, nos ocurrirá en esos otros campos lo mismo que a Kasparov con el ajedrez.

Durante las próximas décadas, la competencia de las máquinas rivalizará, y finalmente superará, cualquier habilidad humana particular que se nos ocurra, incluida nuestra maravillosa capacidad para insertar las ideas en una gran diversidad de contextos.
Se ha visto la evolución como un drama de mil millones de años que condujo inexorablemente a su creación más grandiosa: la inteligencia humana.
El surgimiento, a principios del siglo veintiuno, de una nueva forma de inteligencia en la tierra que compita con la inteligencia humana y finalmente la supere significativamente, será un acontecimiento más importante que cualquiera de los que han dado forma a la historia humana.

No será menos importante que la creación de la inteligencia que la creó, y tendrá profundas implicaciones en todos los aspectos del quehacer humano, incluso en la naturaleza del trabajo, el aprendizaje humano, el gobierno, la guerra, las artes y el concepto de nosotros mismos.

Pero con el surgimiento de las computadoras, que rivalizan verdaderamente con el cerebro humano y lo superan en complejidad, vendrá la correspondiente capacidad de las máquinas para entender y responder a abstracciones y sutilezas.
En parte, los seres humanos parecemos complejos debido a que nuestras aspiraciones compiten entre sí.

Los valores y las emociones representan metas que a menudo entran en conflicto unas con otras y son subproductos inevitables de los niveles de abstracción con los que hemos de tratar forzosamente en tanto que seres humanos.
Cuando las computadoras logren un nivel de complejidad comparable (e incluso mayor), dado que, al menos en parte, derivan cada vez más de modelos de inteligencia humana, también ellas utilizarán necesariamente metas con valores y emociones implícitas, aunque no es forzoso que presenten los mismos valores y emociones que presentamos los seres humanos.

Se planteará un gran cúmulo de problemas filosóficos.

¿Piensan las computadoras, o sólo calculan?

Es presumible que el cerebro humano siga las leyes de la física, de modo que tiene que ser una máquina, sólo que muy compleja. ¿Hay alguna diferencia intrínseca entre el pensamiento humano y el pensamiento de las máquinas? Para plantear la cuestión de otra manera, ¿debemos considerar que, una vez alcanzada la complejidad del cerebro humano y la capacidad de éste en sutileza y complejidad de pensamiento, las computadoras serán conscientes?

Es una cuestión difícil hasta de plantear, y hay filósofos que creen que es una pregunta sin sentido; otros creen que es la única cuestión con sentido en toda la filosofía. Esta cuestión se remonta en realidad a la época de Platón, pero con el surgimiento de máquinas que parecen tener auténtica volición y emoción, el problema resultará cada vez más imperioso.

A menudo se leen predicciones para las próximas décadas que analizan una gran variedad de tendencias demográficas, económicas y políticas, que evidencian una tremenda ignorancia del impacto revolucionario que tienen y tendrán las máquinas en sus propias opiniones y sus propios planes. Sin embargo, para poder captar el mundo que nos aguarda, debemos reflexionar acerca de las implicaciones del surgimiento gradual, pero inevitable, de un verdadero competidor en todo el espectro del pensamiento humano.

La aceleración exponencial de la evolución

Tras miles de millones de años, se formó el planeta llamado tierra, sin ninguna característica destacable. Agitados por la energía del sol, los elementos formaron moléculas cada vez más complejas.De la física nació la química. Dos mil millones de años después comenzó la vida.
Lo que quiere decir que modelos de materia y energía que podían perpetuarse y sobrevivir se perpetuaron y sobrevivieron.
Es notable que hasta hace dos siglos no se advirtiera esta aparente tautología.
Con el tiempo, los modelos adquirieron mayor complicación que la de meras cadenas de moléculas.
Estructuras de moléculas que cumplían distintas funciones se organizaron en pequeñas sociedades de moléculas.
De la química nació la biología.
Así, hace alrededor de tres mil cuatrocientos millones de años, surgieron los primeros organismos de la tierra.
El desarrollo más importante durante los dos mil millones de años siguientes fue la genética basada en el ADN, que a partir de ese momento guía y registra el desarrollo evolutivo.
Un requisito clave para un proceso evolutivo es un registro "escrito" de logros, pues de lo contrario el proceso está condenado a repetir la búsqueda de soluciones a problemas ya resueltos.
Para los primeros organismos, el registro estaba escrito (incorporado) en sus cuerpos, codificado directamente en la química de sus estructuras celulares primitivas.
Con el invento de la genética basada en el ADN, la evolución había diseñado una computadora digital para registrar su obra.
Este diseño permitió experimentos más complejos.
Los agregados de moléculas llamadas células se organizaron en sociedades de células con la aparición de las primeras plantas y animales multicelulares hace unos setecientos millones de años.
Durante los ciento treinta millones de años siguientes se trazaron los planos corporales básicos de los animales modernos, incluso un esqueleto con su espina dorsal básica, que posibilitó a los primeros peces un eficaz estilo natatorio.
De modo que mientras que la evolución necesitó miles de millones de años para diseñar las primeras células, luego ocurrieron acontecimientos destacados en sólo centenares de millones de años, lo que indica una clara aceleración del tiempo.
Cuando alguna catástrofe acabó con los dinosaurios, hace sesenta y cinco millones de años, los mamíferos heredaron la tierra (aunque los insectos tal vez discrepen de esta afirmación).
Con el surgimiento de los primates, el progreso comenzó a medirse en simples decenas de millones de años.
Los humanoides surgieron hace quince millones de años y se distinguieron por andar sobre las extremidades posteriores.
Y ahora descendamos a sólo millones de años.
Con cerebros más grandes, en particular en la zona de la corteza que presenta más circunvoluciones y que es la responsable del pensamiento, nuestra especie, el homo sapiens, surgió tal vez hace quinientos mil años.
El homo sapiens no era muy distinto de otros primates avanzados en términos de herencia genética.
A partir de entonces, la historia de la evolución se centra en una variante evolutiva auspiciada por el hombre: la tecnología.

Tecnología: evolución por otros medios

La tecnología tiene su auge con la aceleración de la evolución a ritmo exponencial.
Aunque no es el único animal que emplea herramientas, el homo sapiens se distingue por la creación de tecnología.

La tecnología va más allá de la mera invención y utilización de herramientas.
Implica un registro de producción de herramientas y un progreso en la sofisticación de éstas. Eso requiere invención y es en sí mismo una continuación de la evolución por otros medios.

El "código genético" del proceso evolutivo de la tecnología es el registro que mantiene la especie productora de herramientas. Así como el código genético de las primeras formas de vida fue simplemente la composición química de los organismos, el registro escrito de las primeras herramientas consistió en las herramientas mismas. Más tarde, los "genes" de la evolución tecnológica evolucionaron hasta convertirse en registros que emplean el lenguaje escrito y que ahora son a menudo almacenados en bases de datos. Por último, la propia tecnología creará nueva tecnología. Pero nos estamos adelantando demasiado. Ahora nuestra historia se cuenta por decenas de miles de años.

Algunas especies y subespecies de homo sapiens iniciaron la creación de la tecnología. La más inteligente y agresiva de estas subespecies fue la única que sobrevivió.
Esto estableció un patrón que se repetiría a lo largo de la historia humana, según el cual los grupos de tecnología más avanzada terminan dominando.
Puede que esta tendencia sea un buen augurio para el momento en que las máquinas inteligentes nos superen en inteligencia y sofisticación tecnológica en el siglo veintiuno.

Nuestra subespecie de homo sapiens, por tanto, quedó sola entre los humanoides hace aproximadamente cuarenta mil años.
Nuestros antecesores han ido heredando de especies y subespecies anteriores de homínidos innovaciones tales como el registro de acontecimientos en las paredes de las cuevas, el arte pictórico, la música, la danza, la religión, el lenguaje avanzado, el fuego y las armas.
Durante decenas de miles de años, los humanos crearon herramientas afilando un lado de una piedra.
A nuestra especie le llevó decenas de miles de años pensar que afilando ambos lados, el filo resultante proporcionaría una herramienta mucho más útil.
Sin embargo, lo interesante es que esas innovaciones tuvieron lugar y que permanecieron.

Ningún otro animal de la tierra que emplee herramientas ha demostrado capacidad para crear y conservar innovaciones en su uso.
Y también es interesante que la tecnología, como la evolución de las formas de vida que la produjeron, sea un proceso intrínsecamente acelerador.
Los fundamentos de la tecnología (como la creación de un filo agudo a partir de una piedra) necesitaron eones para perfeccionarse, aunque para la tecnología de creación humana los eones sólo significan miles de años y no los miles de millones que requirió el inicio de la evolución de las formas de vida.

Al igual que la evolución de las formas de vida, el ritmo de la tecnología se ha acelerado enormemente con el tiempo.
El progreso de la tecnología en el siglo diecinueve, por ejemplo, superó por mucho el de los siglos anteriores con la construcción de canales y grandes barcos, la creación de caminos pavimentados, la extensión del ferrocarril, el desarrollo del telégrafo...
...y la invención de la fotografía, la bicicleta, la máquina de coser, la máquina de escribir, el teléfono, el fonógrafo, el cine, el automóvil y, por supuesto, la bombilla de luz de Thomas Edison.

El crecimiento exponencial continuo de la tecnología en las dos primeras décadas del siglo veinte es equiparable al de todo el siglo diecinueve.
Hoy conseguimos inmensas transformaciones en unos cuantos años.
Entre muchos ejemplos posibles, mencionemos la más reciente revolución en las comunicaciones, la Internet, inexistente hace sólo unos años.

Una vez que la vida se instala en el planeta, podemos considerar inevitable el surgimiento de la tecnología. No cabe duda de que la capacidad para expandir el alcance de las habilidades físicas, por no hablar de las facilidades mentales, a través de la tecnología, es útil para sobrevivir. La tecnología ha puesto a nuestra especie en condiciones de dominar su nicho ecológico.
La tecnología exige dos atributos de su creador: inteligencia y habilidad física para manipular el medio ambiente.

¿Qué es la tecnología?

Como la tecnología es la continuación de la evolución por otros medios, comparte el fenómeno de la aceleración exponencial.La palabra deriva del griego tekhné, que significa "oficio o arte", y logía, que significa "estudio de", de modo que una interpretación de "tecnología" es "estudio de la habilidad de un oficio", entendiendo por "oficio" la actividad de dar forma a los recursos necesarios para un fin práctico. Utilizo la palabra "recursos" y no "materiales" porque la tecnología comprende también la producción de recursos no materiales, como la información. A menudo se define la tecnología como la creación de herramientas para obtener el control del medio. Sin embargo, esta definición no es suficiente.
Los seres humanos no son los únicos que usan e incluso crean herramientas.
Lo original del hombre es la aplicación del conocimiento (conocimiento registrado) a la confección de herramientas. La base de conocimientos representa el código genético para la tecnología en evolución. Y como la tecnología ha evolucionado, los medios para registrar esta base de conocimientos también han evolucionado y han pasado de las tradiciones orales de la antigüedad a las anotaciones escritas de los artesanos del siglo diecinueve y finalmente a las bases de datos con asistencia informática de los años noventa del siglo veinte. La tecnología también implica una trascendencia de los materiales utilizados para contenerla.

Cuando los elementos de un invento se unen exactamente como corresponde producen un efecto de encantamiento que trasciende a las partes. Cuando Alexander Graham Bell conectó accidentalmente con un alambre dos bobinas en movimiento y solenoides (núcleos de metal envueltos en alambre), el resultado trascendió los materiales con los que había trabajado. Por primera vez, al parecer de modo mágico, se transportaba la voz humana a un lugar remoto. La mayoría de los montajes son simplemente eso: montajes al azar. Pero cuando los materiales (y, en el caso de la tecnología moderna, la información) están montados como deben estarlo, se produce la trascendencia. El objeto montado termina por ser mucho más que la suma de sus partes. El mismo fenómeno de la trascendencia tiene lugar en el arte, que bien podría considerarse como otra forma de tecnología humana. Cuando se monta de manera adecuada madera, barnices y cuerdas, el resultado es prodigioso: un violín, un piano. Cuando ese artilugio se manipula de manera adecuada, se da otro tipo de magia: la música. La música va más allá del mero sonido. Evoca una respuesta (cognitiva, emocional, tal vez espiritual) en quien escucha, otra forma de trascendencia.

Todas las artes comparten la misma meta: la comunicación del artista con el público.
La comunicación no consta sólo de datos sin adorno, sino de los elementos más importantes del jardín fenomenológico: sentimientos, ideas, experiencias, anhelos.
El significado griego de tekhné incluye el arte como manifestación clave de tecnología. El lenguaje es otra forma de tecnología de creación humana. Una de las primeras aplicaciones de la tecnología es la comunicación, y el lenguaje proporciona el fundamento para la comunicación del homo sapiens. La comunicación es una habilidad decisiva para la supervivencia. Capacita a las familias y grupos para desarrollar estrategias conjuntas con el fin de superar los obstáculos y los adversarios.

Sin embargo, estos métodos no parecen evolucionar de otra manera que a través de la habitual evolución basada en el ADN. Las especies no poseen una manera de registrar sus medios de comunicación, de modo que los métodos se mantienen estáticos de una generación a otra. Por el contrario, el lenguaje humano evoluciona, lo mismo que todas las formas de tecnología. Junto con las formas de evolución del lenguaje, la tecnología ha proporcionado medios cada vez más eficaces de registrar y distribuir el lenguaje humano.

La comunicación que emplea medios repetitivos, referenciales, simbólicos, evolutivos, que se conocen naturalmente como "lenguaje".

Open Sourcing Knowledge Engineering

2010-02-11T11:50:00.006+01:00

We are at the doors of a holistic Knowledge Revolution. New systems and technologies are arriving which will surely derive in a next generation technology leap. User Generated Software. The latest wave of technologies ahead of us are very potent and I am convinced are destined to cascade in the very near future onto a Knowledge Engineering Era.

One question maybe on who will trigger this, but another more important is how the winner will trigger it.

To drive this wonderful endeavour to success the winner has to have a solid, true and very pure open source strategy.

This is a one-time opportunity. Open source and win.

About web 3.0 universes, web presence and the micro-transactional market

2009-11-02T10:58:00.023+01:00

Web Universes are moving ahead. The Red Interactive Agency has developed an interesting Red Universe 1.0 beta where the potential for exploiting web universes is exposed.

Web branding is growing swiftly and with determination now to catch web user interest and further interact with their product line domains. It is clear competitors will no doubt develop their own implementations to extend brand awareness and user flow to their sites. No doubt, brand memory is an important asset which is, as web technology advances, increasingly cherished by companies that already own a positive memory on non-web communities and wish to maintain it so.

Innovative and highly interactive products can help in maintaining current brand recognition levels through today's young generations. And today's youngsters are tomorrow's parents.

Such an approach can allow following community interest and behavioral patterns through the virtual community. We approach a further revolution on product-focused avatars, brand driven universes and interaction with social networks. Branding is growing in awareness and aim to profiteer from the micro-transactional market. Creative web geared products and linkage to physical product lines can bring important product synergies. Successful branding strategies will certainly position their web presence in such a way to attract rare and active users the like; as Red Universe beta shows.

It is certainly an opportunity and a challenge. The potential for web micro-transactional market that arises with a good web branding strategy, is surely large indeed. Moreover, fields such online gaming are still on uncharted waters and do have a solid scope for growth. Furthermore, its potential has already unwounded, particularly in Asia for years now, despite being in early days in the Western world and focused to highly active web communities.

Moreover, there is a brand recognition bonus for the innovators and sector leaders, to embed their sites innovatively into their users minds, by producing highly interactive Web 3.0 productions. The question is can brands become a starting point for the web community searching for, say, 'fun'; such as google is for searching?. Can they be the 'icon'of a new way of marketing?

The synergies of online shops of physical product lines with web universes and communities can certainly bring many riches indeed to web market spirited brands.

In the near future, I trust we will see more and more universes arising, with brands sharing their spirit with the web community; furthermore linking their brand identities to innovation, creativity, user feelings, sharing their vision about what the web presence of their products, raising awareness and wishing the communities thinking of their brands as a leader of their domains, and further, as participants, drivers, and ultimately creators and entepreneurs of the next online innovative product trends, potentially unraveling a refreshing, flexible and unbeatable presence.

The Superconductor revolution is here; The end of power lines

2009-09-05T13:08:00.007+02:00

"If you have a flow with very low resistance by using Superconducting technology instead of Copper, you can have transport without loss of energy. This, on itself its a fantastic achievement. Imagine all the power lines using this technology. Actually, Do we need power lines at all !?"

New York is already planning to do just that upgrade. Read this article at New Scientist where the first superconducting power line is planned. In this case cables are injected with nitrogen so the cable is kept at a very low temperature.

On the other hand, I recently learned the China has been recently divesting currency reserves and investing heavily in resources such as copper. In 2008 the chinese purchased a whole mountain of copper; Copper Mountain, Peru. In the last few months, China has continued accumulating raw materials, in particular Copper; See this Telegraph article from Ambrose Evans-Prichard about china's divestment of reserves on a new 'Copper Standard'.

At first, such a massive acquisition of this essential electricity conductor is worring. However, although yesterday Copper has been a limited and very valuable resource, strangely, tomorrow won't be.

There are fenomenal alternatives to it ready to use. Superconductors in particular. 100,000 times better conducting than copper, able to reduce energy power lines loss of energy by 10-20%. Able to conduct energy with a minor loss of resistance. Okay, some of this superconductors need to be at around -270 fahrenheit to be superconducting, but new technologies have appeared, which need not be in such a low temperature range.

In fact, by learning more into the detail, you can find superconductor polymer composites called Ultraconductors(TM). See Chava Energy to learn more. These Ultraconductors(TM) can work between -450 and 300 degrees.

These make Ultraconductors(TM) candidates for advance batteries with minimal energy loss by heat, and most importantly the creation of polymer based cabling to conduct energy for distribution without substantial network loss. This in particular, can increase substantially the provision of energy by simply upgrading the cabling line infrastructure.

Ultraconductors will therefore allow to transport energy from far away, such as deserts, or even deep sea windmill fields. Plans to make sun platforms in Africa, or Deep Sea Windmills are suddently more feasable.

In my humble view, this appears to be finally time for Superconductors. Ultraconductors(TM) and other types, surely, will drive us to a Supercondutor Revolution, where energy concerns, and investment in technology can take these plastic polymers, to a new stand in electricity conductivity, and multiply energy capacity and distribution far further, by using these instead of Copper.

Creative increases of monetary mass

2009-06-29T20:24:00.012+02:00

A couple of rare events, happen to trigger potentially similar creative increases of monetary mass. Two unrelated events in the last week, both in the UK and Spain, have trigger a potential slight increase in monetary mass and gives scope for creative growth. Time to sort out historical injustices? Time to be fair and creative?

A few days ago the spanish press showed renewed interest on returning the monies of money funds created by the 'enemy' in 1939.If they are returned to the bond holders, the total is believed to amount 14 million euros. It is unclear whether this will finally occur or not. This was rejected on 1995.

Today the bbc says the UK has put into circulation 20p coins without date which apparently gives these 200,000 coins a value of £50 pounds each. A 'rare error' - says the british press - which totals £10 million of money 'injected' into the economy (considering 200,000 coins have been put into circulation at a face value of only £40,000).

Let the Internet decide: Make the Iran electoral results' database available on the internet

2009-06-22T20:41:00.032+02:00

A quick and easy solution to resolve electoral results would be to make the poll results publicly available by exposing the results transparently and read-only to everyone.

Any disagreement could be easily verified. People could check what they voted, and to validate the results, what other's have voted. You could compare the voter names, what voters have voted where, and perform all sorts of validating statistical analysis to ensure they are true.

California already holds a Hearing on Open Source Electoral Systems. Certainly entrusting the internet to hold this data is healthy.

As the system is computerised, the holders of the data already have this power. If this is offered to the members of a democratic voting system it would clear any issues.

Transparency again; a clear answer. These days, the only believable one.

The alternative Formula 1: A new approach for motorsport racing

2009-06-09T21:07:00.018+02:00

Times are changing. Formula 1 teams, sponsors and constructors are all working out how their brand positioning matches with the FIA Formula One model. These are seriously considering whether is it worth their participation, and to what degree of involvement they shall form part of.

In this post I humbly propose an alternative model for the pinnacle of motorsport racing, whatever name is given.

The new Formula shall be always be heavily involved by constructors. It shall remain focused on new technologies which are of interest to society; towards the direction which society attempts to move towards; an alternative world with alternative energies and zero emissions. In the current times, it shall direct towards green technologies and zero emission vehicles to ensure the pinnacle of engineering excels in alternative energies.

It shall invest effort in remaining actual and focused, always aiming to become the pinnacle of engineering. It shall be synonim of technology, innovation, highest performance, team effort, strategy, unity and focus delivering new technologies preferably in unchartered territories. It shall be a sport that furthers society's global technological edge. Sponsors will pile up with that approach.

It shall also be social, particularly a sport that kids enjoy. A family sport. A sport that motivates youngsters on pursuing engineering careers. That amazes fathers with the techological depth and strategic positioning. A sport that brings emotion and amazement on the achievements reached.

Teams should have more pilots and tests should be constantly made. With constant upgrades, new technologies, new parts, new developments, new software, new batteries, new fuels...This varying performance from one race to the next will keep the edge. The advances shall keep the fans interested and the technologies be swiftly made available for the various industries, so commercial use can be utilised and the industry moved forward.

The new Formula one shall be focused, meaningful and intelligent. Its technology restrictions shall be as open as possible and promote the highest standards of development for the fields of mechanical engineering, aerodynamics, physics, compounds developments, green fuels, and most important of all, guiding us to the zero emissions world.

There are loads of sponsors waiting if the brand positioning is impecably correct. There is a lot of potential for growth, particularly for such an already mature and highly advanced motorsport industry; to achieve great results in a meaningful direction.

In the interest of sharing, the races shall be also longer - some even 24 hours - and with many pilots allowed per team. The technologies shall be shared amongst the various teams after a number of races, so all teams can sort of advance together with the latest advances.

To me that is the future of motorsport racing, brand it as you wish.

Lessening power concentration on single individuals

2009-06-07T11:44:00.042+02:00

Can current political and institutional frameworks designs be upgraded to lessen power silos?

Power concentration is, in my view, the biggest problem we have in our society. We have examples every day, all over the world. Current figures primary interest is to remain in power and profiteer from it, whether is politically or economically, whether is now or later. Conflict of interests between theirs and the society they represent can quickly expand, and when this happens, these individuals should be ejected from their post automatically.

- Mervin King, the Bank of England Governor, has a pension of £5million (details here). Does he deserve that?. I honestly very much doubt it. Is that a conflict of interest? I think so. Or is it that large because he knows inflation is coming our way!? At some point they became millionaires. Whhhy? That is sending the wrong signals to me. Is that person in this post for UK Citizens or for his pension? Come on!

- Berlusconi scandalous party pictures showing his aberrations openly at the expense of his citizens appear here (see here). I find unbelievable the italians allow these destruction of their institutions. Can the italians be serious?

- British Prime Minister sticking to power when he has been politically wiped out (see here). Nothing personal, but the system is evolving and you have to go mate.

- The American President is now doing wonderful speaches one could not dream off in the worrisome Bush long years. It is wonderful to see now, but before was scary. Does their constitutional system need upgrading to validate direction of the country. Is a sole person politically the right way forward as a leader? Would not be better to have an entity of an elected bunch of wise members joinly making the decisions? Obama is fine, he even creates brainstorming groups to help him, but what about the next one? Should the americans institutionalise political upgrades now? I think they should.

- Large corporations wiping out corporate equity in their out of this world bonuses and pensions by optimising their position versus the legal system. The law must be clear, be faster in adapting, and institutions ought to fight any conflict of interest appearing. The germans are trying to put a cap on their remuneration techniques, but what about the rest of the world?.

Power concentrations are a problem. A president of a large entity can mistakenly direct the interests of who they represent, whilst standing in the framework created to aim to build a strong and prosperous society.

It is in the interest of the sustainability of these societies to have mechanisms to ensure the profiles of these individuals are the most reasonable for the post. And make sure they are ejected with no regard if they are not acting correctly. These days no-one resigns. Power is cool, and it should not be. We should cherrish taking responsibility on behalf of our peers, instead altrustically.

Inflation is on the hands of Central Banks

2009-05-25T22:56:00.009+02:00

We are in deflationary territory. Robert Zoellick from the World Bank has warned of the destabilising effects of unemployment, triggering social unrest. Social unrest triggers fear, group discomfort,angriness and a tendency towards misery and war.

War economies thrive in deflationary macroeconomic environments. Those political parties strong enough to survive the political pressures at home, will have plenty of opportunities and events to move ahead towars some sort of war. In the nuclear paradigm in what we live, where availability of that technology is a matter of time, the current political scenario is far from ideal and it could get threatening and scary.It is imperative to direct interest towards a green direction. And is also a matter of time.

In this context, the question now is what the international comunity can do to promote a swift move towards inflation, currency stability and reduce in whatever degree possible these tensions. This is highly feasable by stabilizing the reserves relationship amongst countries and printing money at an accelerating rate whilst moving towards a sustainable green economy.

In the meantime, Central Banks are slowly printing and hoping the actions have been sufficient. Despite some positive news that they are, I feel otherwise. Last week the UK has shown its political shake-up with the embarrassing expenses affairs of their elected MPs. Hearsay of political damage to the current PM are everywhere. This is an example of political unrest. The Americans seem to behave so more slightly less open and less transparent, with the Guantanamo events and other political events.

Today North Corea nuclear tests show another example. The UN Security Council condemning this event violating 1718 resolution, 1695 and others. Tomorrow, who knows. As local tensions grow in many countries, things won't get any better for now. Central Banks must print some more now. Get the reserve ratios agreed, and print. And we'll have to wait until they do.

Does the future of the Car Industry lie in converting petrol vehicles into hibrids?

2009-05-23T10:39:00.020+02:00

There is a lot of potential on the transformation of existing petrol driven vehicles. Genovation is already offering to make your Ford Focus electric for a few grand.

There are millions of cars in this world. One can not expect all these vehicles to be renewed. One can not expect these valid vehicles to be efficiently disposed of either. Building new vehicles does more damage to the environment than running them for years.

Although some may decide to purchase new vehicles, many won't be seduced by further purchases; particularly now. However, most of the drivers may be interested in a efficiency boost on their current car. If this upgrade also saves running costs and renews their vehicle and integrates with saving the environment...well, that's a done deal and the market is fenomenally large for that.

Last weekend I was driving back from Hamburg to Dresden. As I often do on these long drives, I happened to be discussing this very subject with my Dad over the phone. Certainly, there is a lot of potential in upgrading the current fleet of vehicles. Imagine millions of customers with the potential of being simply upgraded

These days, well maintained old vehicles do drive well. For instance my mondeo 1998 is in sound shape and is geared to survive for years. Dispose of it? Never! Upgrade it? Sure!.

There is business to be made and is incredible economically sensible. Earlier today I read an article regarding Genovation is already doing this. Well done for them. Converting your car electric is certainly a fantastic option. Looks like for £6000 this company can convert it.

There are others alternatives, more affordable, like getting your vehicle adapted with electrostatic oxygen separation (a custom turbo driven by water) which improves energy efficiency of diesel and petrol engines and it costs a few hundred pounds. Or, if you want to convert your vehicle into a hidrogen hibrid, here is how: A cheap transformation that can give electricians and mechanics plenty of business.

Formula 1 branding is evolving - but is it quick enough?

2009-05-21T10:29:00.024+02:00

Formula 1 teams have a strategic problem. Their branding promotes absolute excellence at whatever cost. And times have changed.

Whilst FIA wants to keep all the fun at the expense of the largest teams of the F1 by giving goodies to the small teams, Ferrari and others are not playing ball. Honda already knew. They drove around the track crying out loud in a green painted car to evolve into renewable racing. Now 7 teams are seriously considering whether participating is on their brand interests or not.

Certainly, we live in a post-credit crunch. The economy is struggling with deflationary pressures, and evolving out of oil into a renewed world. Politicians are trying to revive the faltering car industry, capping desorbitant business strategies, picking up the pieces of a out of control capitalism, promoting fairness, trying to get consumers to buy a few cars...

On the other side, there is Formula 1, still linking excellence, motorsport, engineering, performance and tones of money. And these values are difficult to pursue in this new world. As these values are no longer optimal, the F1 FIA knows they simply can not channel expenditure in the same manner.

Formula One has got an opportunity to become a testing ground for the most advance automotive engineering for sustainable energies. But they must be quick and compromising.

Sponsors simply can no longer excuse to their shareholders to participate in a sport with non sensible values. Excellence can come at any price only if the positioning is perfect. Merging engineering and sustainability can be the twist to make. The vasts amounts of money can be used to re-direction the business to a more green direction. Like Honda did.

So I don't think Ferrari is joking here. The implications of spending money and not winning, or build budget formula-1 cars, goes against their brand positioning, and may even drive them to reconsider their business..They need to research sustainable technologies themselves. And so does Mercedes, Bmw and Renault.

The way forward may be to speed up the green axioms and introduce new regulation to enforce sustainable vehicles and seriously compromising to go sustainable.

Printing money - do you want to know what it is?

2009-03-15T14:33:00.010+01:00

In this blog post I try to clarify the whys and the hows of Printing Money.

Printing Money, or Quantitative Easing (QE), is a matter of general interest these days which could do with a little bit of explaning. The not-in-the-know reader is suspicious on how and why governments are printing 'notes' or gilts like their Zimbawian counterparts do. Is it the same? Why are they doing it? Why are they using 'gilts' instead of 'notes'?

Why do we manage money?

Monetary Policy is a crafting process designed to manage the money amounts on the economy. Monetary Policy Economic Models try to model and implement, simply, techniques to optimally manage the economic momentum of the economy. Central Banks are entities created to monitor the economic inflows, monetary mass, unemployment, inflation management, market expectations, the country's currency position, imports and exports and interest rates amongst other factors such as crafting these in accordance to the government borrowing, spending and taxation plans.

Boldly, an expansionary policy has been used to reduce unemployment, and a contractionary policy has involved raising interest rates to combat inflation.

By making informed decisions, a very intelligent group of monetary policy economists vote to determine what is the best configuration and tuning of the economic parameters in the current and medium-term economic context. Historically, and in good times, this has been focused on keeping inflation low and growth expectations high, via handling interest rates intelligently.

Why do governments print money? Shall I be worried of deflation?

When an economy enters a deflationary era it tends to be because there is something very wrong with the system. A design or a strategy flaw. Like a balloon that deflates, a hole on the economic framework causes the economy to not withstand the pressures of growth. Rates are then put down, and the government is supposed to take action to fix these holes. (In this case, the global regulation on the financial system authorities, and other entities such as credit rating agencies).

Deflation is worrying as no-one wants it, and it can trigger a lot of pain in a society, including wars.

So, when the economic momentum slows down or stops, interest rates are put down to boost the economy and make sure the momentum stays positive. However, if the fall is very substantial, like these days, boosting the economy by lowering rates does not suffice. i.e. the hole is too large on the balloon and we need to change the design of the balloon. In this scenario we experience deflationary pressures, which causes increasing unemployment, lowering demand of goods and services, and money intrinsec value raises. Investors go to gold or not invest at all. Companies brace to survive and freeze growth plans. Needless to say, this brings social unhappiness, and triggers social unrests, demonstrations. Historically government driven economies, normally divert to war economies to overcome the deflationary pressures via war economies. War economies brings results and growth and therefore it's a worrisome scenario politicians try to do their best in avoid in these global times.

Deflationary pressures means prices are going down to satisfy the de-acceleration in demand. Companies sell less and put their prices down. The spiral is clear, and triggers an increase of unemployment and negative inflation. These negative inflation causes the expectations of demand to keep lowering, governments move towards protectionist measures to defend its own industry, eventually triggering a war to manage the human unrest.

Increasing the amount of money in circulation: Putting value back in the system

To tackle this, Macroeconomic theory states that an injection of inflation can help trigger the momentum by devaluating the currency. Why is this? Simply the people who has the money is either investing in gold or in cash, as they are worried about their investments in a deflationary economy. Devaluating is basically a tax on savers, and banks too. Money needs to keep moving. Basically saying if you don't give the money, we will. This action gets the value out of the savers' monies and put it back into circulation. Inflation, does therefore wipe the value out of the savers' (and banks') notes, by dividing the intrinsec value of the currency by the amount of money in circulation.

Thus, printing money causes that there is more money into circulation. The relationship between monetary mass, inflation and interest rates takes care of the rest. More money means the currency devaluates to balance out, what means poorer purchasing parity of the citizens of the country. i.e. holidays to Brighton instead of Lloret de Mar.

On return exports are cheaper and the position of the country, if it's technologically efficient and with a meaningful industry[critical in these times of change], means that it will reposition itself at a higher scale over time, via exports. Historically this is done by introducing infrastructure plans on countries to promote growth in the right direction, and develop technological advances. i.e. fixing the reasons why the balloon depressurized, like the US has just done preparing for the new economic drivers of the future.

So, why is the UK goverment printing 'gilts' and does not print 'notes' instead?

The Maastrich Treaty disallows a relationship between the Treasury and the Central Bank for very good reasons. These reasons are to protect from irresponsible background printing, where countries cheat to repay debt. Of course, any fears from the market that that would happen, will trigger in an instant devaluation of such currency.

Ideally, these printing money actions should never happen in a sound economic world as technolical edge and industry might should stop this from occurring before rates reach zero. In the context of a European Union the restrictions are clearly driven for a control of the european market. Now, the UK workarounds this rule by using the market for gilts (or the debt securities issued by the Bank of England to finance government debt plans). Basically it's using a little bit of financial engineering to reach its purposes, and ironically, shows how very difficult would be to manage the banking engineering with bold and static rules.

The idea behind using gilts is that as it is managed electronically these can be put back into the market if the strategy proves wrong. As a matter of fact, the BOE has promised it will do so in the future. The markets will decide if they believe that or not. Easily said that done. Using gilts allows to use the value of interests of foreign investors, thus profeteering of these foreign investors on UK debt, whilst reducing the value of the debt itself. If this approach is to be continued, this would trigger foreign investors loosing interest on the UK debt, UK Debt credit rating lowering, deeper currency devaluation, and ultimately the Bank Of England would be buying its own debt, making no difference whether is giving it directly to the treasury as 'notes' or not.

Implications of Printing Money

The reasons why this is forbidden by the Maastrich Treaty is precisely to motivate european countries to build their economic pilars well structured, based on long-term optimisation and not based on short-term shortsighted greed. Having this not been the case, globally, the americans are 'printing' for the purpose of fixing their own economic pilars and going sustainable and green, whereas the UK is only printing to ease a credit driven economy, and make some noise on new financial standards; Whoise purpose is unclear in a post-credit era world.

A question, as usual, arises regarding whether the UK is going to re-invent its own economy or keep devaluating their currency without direction. If they don't set a direction away from the financial-driven economy, I don't see the UK moving anywhere soon and political pressures will naturally rise asking for change and economic re-structuring.

The reason I say this is because when the accelerator is pressed on the newly regulated financial system, the growth restrictions will be so high in the money markets that interest will anyhow go away of the financial sector.

Let's share! Value flourishes by sharing

2009-03-14T10:33:00.023+01:00

Power and sharing don't go together well. The realities of a worsening selfish-based economy have finally triggered seeing sharing with positive eyes and move towards doing great things together. There is fantastic positive value to arise by sharing. Nothing new. But can we do it in all aspects of economy, and indeed, of our lives?

I may have missed it, but I read somewhere President Obama has not used the word sharing so far. He has used bi-partidism, compromise, promoted community work, help and many other altruistic worlds. But he has not used the word 'sharing' yet. Will that be his secret tool? Is America ready to share? Is the world ready to share?

As a matter of fact, if one uses google to share "Obama sharing", it returns some security breach issue arisen by file-sharing a document about plans of a new helicopter. Such as implying security goes before sharing. ie. Military might goes first. Power and Sharing don't go well. They never did. It's a bit like Hate and Love. Love always wins though in the long run....

The US president is fighting this mighty issue with its Transparency Law and certainly an excellent multipartidist, open source approach to politics with compromise and mutual respect. That approach is certainly the way forward. Sharing is at the end of that tunnel. Sharing is the logical evolution. Can we all do it?

Socially and business wise, there are great intelligent and demonstrated strategies where sharing brings fantastic value to each element by the ability to use the common result. The Internet has brought some fantastic examples. The internet itself. Google. Social networking, YouTubes and many web sharing apps. Science will benefit from this identical approach.

Another example is a share-a-sit german website social networking system where you can offer or get lifts form people within Germany [it works very well actually]. Bringing value by sharing to all its players. The car drivers gets a fee per passenger which makes him recover all his costs, and the passengers get a cheap lift to the town in the comfort of a car in a door to door service, and getting to know some new people. Very popular.

Open source is another example where value appears from sharing technology. Frameworks use other frameworks and they grow together in an altruistic race for better software, for greater value; the best part of it free. And the beautiful thing is that is ad eternum. It never ends!

It does not need to be free, but if is free, real value is guaranteed to florish. And from value florishing comes businesses. And from Valuable Businesses comes Economic Might and Technologic edge.

Have we finally learned the real lessons behind this credit crunch and subsequent economic depression? Are we prepared to re-invent businesses, politics and social behaviour by sharing? Can we evolve businesses and learn to share? Are we prepared to share? I think so. We have the tools. We have the examples. It just requires to understand florishing value comes from sharing value and not from keeping it.

Can we share? The benefits and the value within this concept are fenomenal. We just need to share. Share! Share! It is fantastically easy to do. Only our greed and fear stop us. Shall we overcome our gremlins and share?

Representing real value : Moving away from Stock Markets to Value Markets?

2009-03-08T11:47:00.012+01:00

Profit maximimisation does not mean value generation. Short term interests have triggered the wrong direction for bold capitalism, and real value has been put aside by speculative forces. Money has acquired too much intrinsec value, and we are paying the price of direction-less money grabbing generic corporate strategies driven by speculation.

A New Economic Aspect: Are we Moving towards Value Markets to represent value?

On the aftermath, Stock Markets are being battered globally and loosing interest every day to the point that not even politicians care much about their indexes. Voices start to being heard about the partiality of underlying representative value of stock markets. In my view, we are moving away towards Value Markets, as the natural evolution of stock markets. Value Markets will be constructed as indicators of value generation in determining factors of interest in given endevours.

Stock markets shows us that if you seek value, maximisation of shareholder profits is necessary. This cause corporations to divert from optimal direction of sustainable strategies. Thus, direction changes to scoop short-term opportunities in order to maximise profits. And in the long term, that means an invalid speculative strategy, unsellable products and invalid directions making large enterprises fall.

New-born Political Responsibility: A framework of correctness and transparency appears on the aftermath of the excesses of bold capitalism

The political leadership of the world leaders are realising the lack of responsibility is systemic and cultural and that a framework of correctness is necessary. Not only in Wall Street or the City, but also in Washington the numbers are always being irresponsibly made-up for the selfishness of self-interest. The US President said just that yesterday. In the aftermath of this [already great] economic crisis, money is loosing its intrinsec value, and the Financial Markets will continue to fall accordingly.

Great economies like the UK are now printing hundreds of billions, and that ought to translate in ten times that figure in available credit, increasing the M4 monetary mass. The US has had a tremendous budget approved to motivate the economy grow in a more correct direction. The reality is that politicians are aiming to correct the economic imbalances of money driven enterprises.

This will determine agressive hyper-inflationary pressures which will erode much of the intrinsec value of currencies. i.e. The Pound will continue to devaluate and even may bring political change. And so forth the markets will continue to fall. And unemployment to rise whilst the economy awaits inflation to grow to overcome deflation.

Now, the fact that the Financial Markets do fall, in my humble view, is not representative that the value generation of the current direction is not valid. The political will and global interests for the new responsible era is there, and plans for value generation and scientific research and technological growth are there. And are valuable. The financial markets expect a different path; the money path. But politicians know very well that path is unsustainable, and is simply wrong. It is clear to me the stock markets are doomed as they are. Either they evolve, or new more precise value determining index systems will appear.

Why not, for example, Kilowatt driven Energy Markets for energy projects?

As stock markets keep falling, and its failures are systemic, the question arises on itself whether these are representing correctly the economic status. Are the current Financial Markets a correct representation of the current enterprises? The answer is no.

Are we moving away to Value Markets, where generation of sustainable real value is the determining factor of interest in an endevour? Value Prices determined by a representation of energetic value? In my view, the answer is yes.

Windmills keep turning, and solar panels keep generating energy. Research is happening on Science and Biotechnology. Great growth will come from these areas. However the financial markets have a tough time representing this energetic and scientific value within the money framework.

Thus, value is not represented correctly via money, as money has properties that trigger system inefficiencies. For energy stocks the step is clear, and could be an easy way to some sort of kilo-watt driven markets. Valuing scientific research could be next in line to determine the real value of the scientific studies being performed.

What will happen to gold prices when inflation starts?

2009-02-22T17:48:00.023+01:00

I don´t know.

Printing will work: Dealing with deflation fears today will trigger overshooting inflation tomorrow

2009-02-21T17:45:00.035+01:00

Revised 01 March

In my view I see Inflation is coming as a consequence of deflation fears; and in abundance [later on the year]. Hyperinflation? could well be.

Central banks are - rightly - printing for sustainable and social projects and trying to resolve the credit freeze situation and the [current] deflationary pressures. Even politicians are being [somewhat] proactive, [considering the global political hole], and Central Banks are engineering smart monetary mass increase moves like they have never done before. In fact they have never done it this big. The consequences won't take long to appear.

In my view, deflation is a problem which will be dealt with by throwing money into it. I believe that the printing acceleration will be progressively linked to the prospects of deflation and the overshooting is certain, in an environment of such deceleration. If printing would not work, then human and social unrest will appear on the equation. That is obviously the case of failure of all factors and even printing. But printing won't fail. If we are prepared to loose the value within the currencies, everything will be fine. The question is, are we prepared to do that? Or will we fight for that value? I believe the former will occur.

For now, the direction the economy needs to follow is clear and governments and central banks are acting more or less responsibly. I say this because fenomenal investments are swiftly already started sustainably, and the sustainable instinct has grown worldwide. Rates are zeroised. Monetary Mass is being increased swiftly. The economic principles are being slowly corrected.

This is a fantastic opportunity. And some countries are using it. Currencies are suffering like the pound, in an unfortunate fully-finance countries like the "Iceland of the Thames". New economic pilars are being created in front of our eyes in others, like the US. Intelligently and proudly investing in renewables and science, like the US is trying to emulate Germany, with heavy investments on new technologies and alternative energy. These investments will take a while to kick-in and obviously won't be economically felt until 2010-2011.

However, in the mean time, an incoming inflation wave, caused by printing money and monetary mass engineering. Intrinsec value of currencies will fall on countries without direction. Economies will then be forced to re-invent into renewable and scientifically driven if they have not yet done so.

At the same time the credit flow will re-appear, as investors see their value disappear with inflation.

This will importantly allow the global economy to repay old debts with cheaper money. Flow of money will recover. This will allow to remove the fenomenal value-seeking volatility from the Global financial Markets. Commodities will however develop a path of volatility unsure about their position and value in an economy with new pilars.

Controlling the inflationary pressures caused by such an increase on the monetary mass, however, will be the new big challenge, and in a world where countries have become "places to invest", these will market themselves to promote their currencies by offering a sustainable strategy better than the rest.

Towards Generating Value: Technology and Inflation will take us out of this mess

2009-02-08T17:28:00.018+01:00

In my view, the technological advances that await on the next 2-4 years will bring the necessary edge that will restart global growth. Frankly, I don't see the Banking sector ever rising again to the highs of the crazyness of growth without boundaries. Global market capitalism won't pick up the unsustainable credit weight; no matter how many re-styled principles are included to promote trust on global credit..The underlying greed will always exist if value is accumulated. But moving towards a value-generative economy is problematic.

Recent and new bail-outs and government spending will bring inflation to highs. Unemployment will be scary until 2010. Macro-economic policies will endure semi/high inflationary pressures that will directly or indirectly lesser the pain of markets over-levering.

Currencies will suffer and gold will too. Volatility will follow value no matter where it hides.

The systemic volatilty will continue and will remove further trust from the system and wipe out further value. The imbalances on currency reserves will take their toll and value will get wiped out from there too as currencies devaluate. There is not much left to do from the macro-economic perspective but to devaluate via quantitative easing. Use your cash wisely people to make the pilars of the new economy.

On the positive, many technological advances will occur in Health Related Sciences and Alternative Energy before 2012. The potential of health and energy developments needless to say is fenomenal.

The high gearing caused by the fear of the unknown will provoke a very welcome boost on these sectors. Considering the new investments governments are making towards, and the projects on development will speed up time to deployment of many products and technologies at a high pace in the coming years. New developments will bring greater efficiency in a greener and fairer world. Water Technology, Weather Control Systems, Biotechnology, DNA medicines, Alternative Energy will all have a growing stand in the coming years.

Sinergy developments will also occur via cooperation, sharing, compromise, generating value in a spirit of togetherness the world won't have seen before.

The new political global engineering promoted by President Obama is on the making and will bring many changes, and a lot of growth also. Global structures from the 1945 will endure painful and deep long overdue changes .

The spirit of cooperation and care will spread wonderfully. Governments will continue to socialise their policies on behalf of the interests of humanity, correcting the mistakes from the past fearless-ly, in a renewed spirit of welfare and understanding of the value of generating rather than accumulating.

The Nuclear Race is obsolete; Global Leadership in Energy R&D as its natural evolution

2009-02-05T12:22:00.015+01:00

Large energy projects are being(have been) swiftly approved in Scotland, London, Leeds, Texas, Belgium, Netherlands. They could comply with the Kyoto targets and will provide extraordinary energy sustainably. Some of these are supposed to be running from 2010.

Such project plans do already make countries like Iran or North Corea, Brasil or Argentina appear mistaken to their citizens and the world. Obsolete approaches, forcing them to steer away from the nuclear path and put the brakes on nuclear projects. They must now do their best to direct their resources towards sustainable energy developments if they wish to keep playing on the sustainable race.

From the viewpoint of a sustainable world, the nuclear race has been always a natural problem of a resource dependant world, and a clear indicator of the bias of global priorities towards its own insecurities and egocentric goals promoting their "what if" policies. The current position of countries pointing each other with nuclear warheads is not just irrational (as threats no longer come from identifiable countries) but wholly inefficient, wasteful and expensive!(besides the natural uncompliancy with a sustainable world)

It is obvious that as civilization moves on, under-developed countries will always endevour to emulate their leading peers. These will never follow new directions. Otherwise they would be the leaders themselves. It is also obvious, in my view, that these countries are prone to follow the successes and mistakes that the more advanced countries, so their nuclear policies should not surprise us at all. This is to say they have great opportunities to gain a lot of credit and respect if they move swiftly to a sustainable direction.

Nonetheless, give them time, and the natural development is for them to realise as a society it is of no use to them to have these policies. If not for the leaders, for their people. (People will judge their decisions, and in a global world they will compare them to other countries and would expect the same direction.) And as US President Obama clearly said on his opening statement "the people of your country will judge you for what you can build, not what you can destroy".

When the world is no longer playing the "fear" game, the rest of the world will wanna come and play. Although it will take them some time to believe it is true!. That is human nature.

The president of the international agency for nuclear control, in a humble interview to CNN two days ago, very clearly exposed such view in a wonderful attempt on exercising his responsibility to remove the negative karma from nuclear pursuers proposing a global freeze of nuclear heads. The next day, the Iranians launched a satellite into space. Naturally, we all understand this are just pre-arranged events from project plans from a pre-credit crunch era, and will take some time to adjust. The important bit is to show in practice to these countries the leading countries are stearing away from the nuclear route, without fear,(or with a renewed fear to volatility of markets) and they themselves executing freeze of their nuclear projects. Of course, this critical step must soon follow in 2009. Ideally directing those large funds into multinational global alternative energy projects.

For now, the approvals of pharaonic projects will do the trick as is the first stepping stone. i.e. Advanced Offshore windmill fields able to produce energy for whole cities are clear signs that will make this countries put the brakes on their own nuclear race and check their options on how to participate on the sustainable race. Of course, this is still a bit off-course as the more technically demanding projects are still being researched, such as University of Maine is doing with deep sea offshore platforms off the coast of the US.

But still, we all get the message..

The future of the United Nations in the context of Cooperation and a Sustainable world

2009-01-22T13:23:00.015+01:00

The United Nations will now evolve as the world does. By looking at the realities, and not at the reasons there is a lot of scope for growth

The United Nations Security Council was established in 1945. After the 2nd World War it was a check by those nations capable of responding with sufficient force to ensure the maintenance of international peace and security. The ratio of military capabilities since then has only increased, strengthening the argument for the veto in the Security Council. However, now it is debatable whether the veto does or does not longer make sense. As a matter of fact there is a raising global demand for a honorable global entity that guarantees fairness and justice from the realities, without looking at the excuses or interests participants may construct.

Up until now, the world had been constructed on a threatening basis where military might determined what voices were louder on how the world was managed, in a resource dependant world after a major global war. Now, is becoming increasingly clear that we're moving away from a resource driven world to a more sustainable driven world, where alternative energy will rule. And where water will flow with cheap sustainable energy. In a world where the peoples of the world will judge their governments for what they can build and not what they can destroy - as president Obama said on his inauguration statement as US President. -

Progressively, the Security Council of its own its slowly destined to progressively loose its weight as the resource driven era looses meaning, and pressures to maintain resource-restricted global interests lessens, in favour of increasingly attractive global sustainable growth.

This fresh more constructive approach that is coming, in my view, will bring less conflicts caused by resources, and a race to value generation.

This approach will remove pressures from lobbies generally, and drive the United Nations to a more constructive, transparent, "open-source", helpful-to-the-weak approach. It is embedded in the change. The United Nations will progressively acquire the values of fairness and justice, rather than the interests of the winners of the last global conflicts to sustain an unsustainable economy. The world is gearing for change and for sustainability.

In a new more transparent open source politically-might-driven world the United Nations General Assembly is acknowledging the new world stands and progressively being driven to adapt to "value adding" democracies where there is the global consensus that is in everyone interest to work together to achieve greater value.

In my view, it is a matter of time that the people consensus is gathering globally, and therefore bringing transformation to the structure of the global entities. In particular the United Nations Security Council, and the United Nations General Assembly will get upgraded to consistently cope with the new times in a forthcoming alternative energy and science driven world.

Consequently, in this new world where it is of paramount important to engineer global value generation, the United Nations is destined to evolve onto a consistent and constructive approach where global value can be sustainably be ensured to be sustained. A world where conflicts will be managed fairly following less lobby-driven patterns, without the pressures of oil,gas and military might. Making decisions based on global value generation maximisation.

That will not happen overnight. For that to trigger, first we need a world not dependant in energy resources such as oil and gas. And a world compliant politically with the values of diversification, transparency, open-ness, and value generation versus value accumulation. An open-source political wave can slowly implement that whilst self monitoring by transparency and openness.

Wonderfully, or naively, we're getting there. One could say the people of the world have asked for it. Or maybe because selfishly we have had no choice after the credit systemic failure. In my view the United Nations will progressively evolve as the world does. And the world is now condemned to change for the better. By looking at the realities, and not at the reasons there is a lot of scope for growth...

A new Open Source Political Component available; US Democracy 44.0.9.jar available for download

2009-01-22T11:05:00.026+01:00

"(...)People will judge [governments] on what they build, not what they destroy. (...)" 44th US President Barack Obama Inauguration Statement

The sustainable project has started. The Generation of "adding value" versus "accumulating value" has finally reached US politics. Learning from an open-source world, President Obama and his Administration have started their political open-source project where their web portal will have an important stand. In their search for democratic and political correctness, have started to build an open, clean, and correct administration bottom up, and for that they are going the open-source way.

A new open approach is required to ensure the political goodwill does not get eaten by lobbyists pressures onto the administration. On the same spirit of open-ness and democracy, new laws to be passed by the President will get validated by the public before being committed on their new web political wiki. Any american will be able to access and comment on the new laws a few days before the president signs them; in an open and clean and prosperous democratic way.

The number of meetings with lobbysts will be available on the web, as well as where the funds have gone and to which project. Senior Staff from the Administration has had their salaries frozen. And they won't be allowed to get any gifts from anyone, in a correct sign of protecting versus lobbysts pressures.

Needless to say, this simple fact will remove many pressures from lobbysts, and help clean dependencies and the society to work together. The press will be able to analyse and externally validate what's going on, and when problems arise in some areas, these can be refactored in a more efficient way.

Is early days, but if this approach continues to be consistently implemented in an open-source way, the budget architecture and implementation will be made accessible and transparent, ensuring the value added remains, and constructive enhancements can be continually improved allowing the community to improve the approach in all areas. Bit by bit. Learning Lessons. Separating concerns. Sustainably Generating value.

As any software open-source project, the Obama administration aims for correctness from the community and aims for their participation of all aspects in society, separating concerns but bringing value into the Administration approach. This way more value can always be added by mapping new aspects of the society, and any member of this community can truly form part of the democratic process, bringing transparency flow so much needed on any administration and participating on the build process.

Will the political structural API and Impl be available for download?

Ad Infinitum the Expected Growth of Capitalism Is Between Zero and the Optimal Value of a Sustainable Economic Model

2009-01-10T12:06:00.035+01:00

Capitalism aims for a sustainable positive economical growth with low inflation, driven by consumerism, balancing available credit with growth potential, promoting speculation, self-equilibrium, growth. Adjustments of this growth approach is aimed to be driven mostly by market forces. Resource and social management remains an issue which it does not model, and therefore a social network is necessary to be implemented aside to guarantee some very basic living standards for those players unable to compete.

One can say a weakness of Capitalism is that it promises constant growth despite our world having limited resources.
To this we can add that after a number of years of sustained positive growth market balances itself in a non optimal manner bringing some negative growth. Empirically this translates to the fact that we human are driven by fear and greed to a point, and therefore market moves are not optimal. The volatility of markets gets increasingly more concerning the greater the value achieved by a capitalism wave becomes. In the same way a car would behave at speed. (Volatility would be the lateral forces caused by correcting the path by corrections on the steering wheel). The greater a society prospers with free market capitalism, the greater the risk of speculation wiping out the accumulated value.

As posted throughout this blog, the speculative bubbles are inherent to free market capitalism, as these are required to grow, and they can only be managed if the system is at equilibrium itself; and capitalism isn't. Speculation is to Capitalism what a Turbo is to an engine. Eventually you'll need to rev down to take a sharp corner and it will accelerate instead of braking. The market manages itself based on the speculation, but together with a non-linear increase of volatility, as growth becomes larger, due to greedly and fearful market players on which the model is based, eventually cascading on a systemic failure. As it always happen with greed and fear. And so does a system left at the hands of the market which does not model human psyche basic pitfalls.

At some point on the implementation of Capitalism, when a durable period of prosperity is achieved, it delivers a period of low inflation triggering a progressive increase on volatility within currencies - and thus markets - which builds up a distorted speculative bubble, as its growth continually accumulates more and more value onto currencies.

Eventually, as free market capitalism acquires or looses a lot of value, Free-Market Capitalism becomes unbalanced and volatile, and due to macro-economic intrinsec capitalistic configuration (low inflation), the un-managed weaknesses inherent into human psyche (non-modelled fear and greed with large accumulated currency values, low interest rates, low inflation) brings a systemic failure, such as the credit crunch, scaring away credit flow, bringing down highly leveraged entities, and with that, wiping a great amount of total accumulated value. When such a systemic failure occurs, the event can be named, pragmatically, a limit denoting the Expected Maximum Value to the potential of Free Market Capitalism.

We can assume therefore, than in optimal circumstances, a global world run under the premises of global free-market capitalism, and understanding the fact of limited resources, does deliver a number of systemic crunch due to this over-realistic expectations bringing the speculative bubble to crunch every given number of years. Therefore, despite one can devalue currencies, ignore the inbalances, and start all over again by an inflationary injection or other means, the expected value at that point can not be higher than the maximum expected value; in our case one can say the the limits reached in 2008 will not ever be reached again.

This, following the principles of uniform convergence, and the Gibb's Phenomenon ad infinitum, triggers that the expectations of growth within capitalism are every time lesser and lesser, eventually correcting itself to a limit towards Growth Zero. Therefore a different model is to be applied if a society wishes to continue growing ad Infinitum.

To sustain growth a replacement model is imperative which, in my view, needs to be based on the premises of Sustainable Growth.

Of course as the expected growth of Capitalism lessers, the motivation to continue using it as a model should also reduce, triggering a natural progressive replacement and optimisation over time and systemic crashes to a more sustainable better balanced model that seeks ultimate equilibrium, so added value is hedged and never lost. Moreover, if an alternative is followed by other members of these markets -which provides the same value on a less volatile manner -, it becomes economically valid to pursue that more sustainable approach, and due to its correctness, it is more consistent and compliant within a reasonable boundary with a green world too. Whichever country that implements such an approach, will receive a progressive strenghtening of its currency as results and further investment arise. Many countries are already geared up somewhat towards such approach, but free market capitalism results on a high, got their greed too. Now, disappointed countries such as Germany, Denmark and Switzerland will swiftly reposition to that end.

Therefore, at best, Capitalism aims to deliver similar value to the value that Sustainability can assure us. Thus, Capitalism becomes sub-optimal. Not only that, but Capitalism runs out of steam before reaching that expected value, as it has no consideration for resource utilisation besides market forces. In the search of value, the speculation on the market does not care these resources are not eternal. Eventually the cheap free-market capitalism model becomes very expensive, wiping most of the value it acquired, becomes invalid and unpopular due to inefficient resource utilisation, and is brought down to its knees due to un-realistic expectations by itself or by players that wish not to participate no more, when the maximum ceiling value has already been reached.

The Future is Sustainability

Sustainability, on the other hand, can bring growth ad infinitum. Without an speculation bubble, and macro-economic configuration based on modelling the inherent human psyche( inflation, speculation at bay, "generate value" vs "accumulate value") generating growth is then the key. It requires educated players. It requires an specialised workforce. Universities working together with Governmental Research Institutions, and the Industry towards leading the technological world. Research Centres which add value. Investments on technological Research and Development, Alternative Energy, Medicine, BioTechnology, NanoTechnology becomes the core of a society's inner growth in a sustainable ad-infinitum cooperative, social and global economy fighting to combat resource consumption, on a system framework that manages our own pitfalls intelligently, constructively, with many technological advances, R&D, energy diversification, to ensure all the value we have achieved today will be there tomorrow for everyone to build on..

Decoupling Europe from Russia's Gas

2009-01-09T12:57:00.008+01:00

So far, Europe needs Russian Gas. Both Europeans and Russians know it. Mr Putin knows, as well, that Europe is moving towards a sustainable economy, where dependancies to specific resources, such as oil and gas, need to be tackled as soon as possible. In his view, boosting gas price by injecting fear in the market is reasonable to ensure gas prices are sustained at reasonable levels.

But Russia knows the relevance of the next ten years is key for their economic growth. They aim to have a high price of energy resources. This is paramount to profit from large infrastructual investments realised in the last decades to feed Europe of Gas. It is not secret that Russia resource strategy has been to capitalise on that factor and gain the edge of dominating the feed of gas resources.

As we all know, a number of eastern and central european countries have been directly affected by the conflict-or-not, with Ucraine. Europe are of course considering alternative energies, even switching onto old russian made nuclear plants, that were switched off when joining the EU, so energy demand can be assured even if Russia decides to bully Ucraine and Europe.

In my view, every news of issues with the available gas or oil from Russia, ought to be tackled with news of plans for european off-shore and on-shore windmill projects, grants to eastern european countries to invest on renewable energies in countries with energy issues, directional comments towards sustainable energy sources, nuclear developments, researching and developing new improved renewable energy technologies, ,raising awareness on the inmediate reality of energy sustainability on a post credit-crunch world with heavy dependancies to energy sources and providers.

As soon as the Europeans do that, the russians will progressively loose their bargaining power, and volatility injections on the gas markets will loose interest. If the Europeans do do that, they will be also strengthening the Euro, raising awareness of a better competitive position in a new sustainable economic scenario.

Alistair Darling preparing the BoE to loose independence when zero rates arrive and starts talking about printing money

2009-01-07T11:10:00.015+01:00

As predicted in early December, printing money is on the equation. Alistair Darling has used the opportunity of a market outlook to comment on the highly likelihood of reaching a close-to-zero rate economy, as the US. In that context, printing money has been granted green light with restrictions on BoE dealings cooperating with the Treasury department. In accordance to Mr Darling statement, these new monies will be used only to purchase assets. Not that it matters, as that will boost the budget. Could purchasing assets be investing in renewables?

Nationwide now puts a 60 per cent chance on interest rates falling 0.75 per cent, while the mortgage lender forecasts a 20 per cent chance of a 0.50 per cent drop. 1% drops aren't unexpected.

Of course, Alistair Darling has warned for the ocasion that in a zero-driven economy the Bank of England will loose its independance and the printing of money will have to be done with the Treasury so the increase of monetary policy can be managed. These means better accountability, better control of inflationary pressures so inflation can be modulated in accordance to oil and gas price volatility. Inflation will be beneficial for the credit sector increasing the credit flow. And most importantly, if these manners are used correctly it will be highly productive to re-direct the UK to a more sustainable path. Of course, investing in alternative projects and oil decoupling heavily, in every aspect possible, and in such a way the markets truly believe is a decisive action in the right direction and not just to fire-fight with more bailouts.

I believe Mr Alistair Darling is sending the right signals, at a maneagable pace, and considering his pressures, he is doing a good job. In my humble view, the UK is following the right approach so far.

It however lacks the cooperative variable required yet, but these policies surely have been cooperatively discussed with the policies of US and Europe. Although the pound will suffer even further in the short term, the news of heavy investments on decoupling from oil should in the medium term strenghten the currency, if, and only if, the UK fights to achieve a leading position on becoming a true sustainable economy.

Large-Consolidation-with-leverage era takes interest toll on Industry

2009-01-06T17:36:00.022+01:00

The steep downturn in demand has forced companies in most sectors to trim operations, and with no economic upturn in sight, the outlook for highly leveraged corporations, on decreased market demand, is to appear more and more dim. Non sustainable growth is therefore now able to bring large corporations to their knees. Investors are not interested in re-financing, having cash problems of their own, or simply no longer able to provide credit or re-financing on restricted lending ability on current market conditions.

LyondellBasell, The petrochemical industrial player is an example. There has been large consolidations based on debt on the last few years. The megaconsolidation-with-leverage era is the problem, said Corinne Ball, partner at law firm Jones Day and co-head of the firm's New York restructuring and reorganization practice. "You now have real balance sheet issues as companies confront the capital crisis and their refinancing needs. There's very little appetite for refinancing at current levels. More than one (chemical industry company) will face similar issues." said Corinee Ball.

Lyondell, supported by financing from investment banks is now troubled to re-structure its payments. The "Mega-Consolidation with leverage era" will continue to take its toll, and other industrial large players with recent acquisitions of other players, highly leveraged, will continue to struggle. Sustainability is starting to display its necessity to hedge against systemic failures, as the high leverage achievers are now loosing all their advantage on more conservative apporaches; in the worse cases bringing fenomenal businesses right down on their knees. More and more "sustainability" becomes the golden key word for a sound and prosperous business model.

Unable to repay or restructure their highly leverage debt structure, in a world suddently scared of lending, current events turn many pre-credit crunch unbeatable highly leverage industrial players, to Chapter 11, ultimately impacting even further on investment banks, once opportunistic; now worried lenders , such as Merril Lynch, Goldman Sachs, UBS and, in other cases, many others.

What happens when the rates get to zero? It will depend whether growth on economies is "sustainable or not"

2008-12-16T19:08:00.020+01:00

When rates are on their path to zero, pressures on currencies will grow. On a low inflation economy, like we are today, the speculation on the markets can heavily de-stabilise currencies and relationships between countries. Strong militaries historically a stabilizing factor, today are substantially discounted, as they are so dependant on oil. But fenomenal global alternative projects are in the pipeline. Great times for engineers. Rates will remain low. And Inflation will grow. Someone has to pay for society decoupling from oil, and the currencies will do it this time with a good pinch of inflation.

The UK base rate is at 2.0% and continue its lowering at 1% rate, whereas the EU is at 2.5% at an acceleration of 0.75% drop per decision. US today are implying they are going towards 0.5%. Obama is warning the Federal Reserve is running out of ammo. The UK has a bit more time, carrying a rate decceleration of 1% although have got a weaker currency already, whereas the EU reduces 0.75% in each decision and keeps a stronger euro.

The markets are growing nervous and speculation will start raising on the currency markets more and more. To resolve this is important real agreement on policies between countries, like the EU with the 20:20:20, in a better position so far, report their politics towards sustainability.

New sustainable projects should quickly be marketed so the markets start discounting them strenghtening currencies and allowing some inflationary pressures. As we've learned with the US, the economy does not restart with lowering the rates, as the ability to produce has already been lost on the highly leveraged finance sector, which has affected so many industries, like the car industry, and can not be allowed to grow in the same de-regulated manner. Most of the available cash is already invested in long-term investments, so credit keeps on its knees.

As one would expect oil price is cheap. Obviously the economy does not need oil right now as we are producing less and less. The deflationary depression has already started, and the currencies will start getting hit big time.

Major changes need occuring at state level and the americans have the hands tight having to wait for over a month before Obama's team can start promoting fenomenous sustainable energy projects. I expect great stuff from them, and it won't be cheap. Let's say the economy has already paid it in advance with a fenomenal loss of value on the finance sector. This will need to get printed for.

These projects must convince the world countries are developing sustainable growth, or their currencies will keep devaluating. It is ok to print money to do these projects, but they should be done in harmony with Europe, like Barrosso is trying to tell a concerned America with his statment "you can also do the same".

Yes, "sustainability" is to become a magic world together with "generation", "cooperation" and "decoupling". It's not political. It just has to be. We either become fenomenally sustainable or we must become economically smaller. It's just economics. And is happening in front of our eyes. That's that. Politicians have seen it and have started acting. Don't fear, hold your pulse, invest heavily in sustainable energy projects. Or see your currency devaluate if the markets are not convinced you're going for sustainability and trying to leave the absolute oil economy. You would say which? What about 4 million square kilometers of windmills?. check it out. Search it in google. I believe it must happen. Whether is this one or others. It is a sustainability matter. And these are big words for a country. Is your country sustainable? or not? I can see the UK building offshore windmills on the North Sea. And Europe may join that project too. This is going to be big. Expect Huge Global Projects with cooperation between economies.

Politicians and regulators have seen the value from money will be lost to a degree either way, whether the economy stalls and no-one can pay promise debts and unemployment and unrest grows (and oil remains, and gold rises to $2000/ounce for that matter). That would be bad. There is the other option. Countries have now got green light to invest in alternative and sustainable technology projects, like the EU is starting to do, helping to counteract unemployment and oil price pressures and injecting some inflation on the economy on a wonderful balance towards system sustainability. This would start the credit sector again, and reduce asset to mortgage ratio restarting the flow.(oil slowly will be more expensive as inflation grows, gold progressive fall as money looses value).This is good.

Wonderful times for an economist. Probably better ones if you're an engineer. An off-shore wind-mill engineer - And is all happening so quickly...

We are not rational beings and we can not be assumed to be either

2008-12-16T10:09:00.008+01:00

Macroeconomic policies are assuming we are rational. The more rational we are assumed to be, the more distorted the policies are.

We suffer of greed and fear, envy, pride and wrath amongst others. Over many many years Religions have tried to remind us of our weekenesses so we develop inner mechanisms to manage these. This is because we can not expect these to manage these weaknesses for us. And we are aware of that.

Some try to use shame to model that, making us feel guilty of our actions in a trust relationship amongst religion and member. That's why we have faith and are members of these religious groups.

However when a macroeconomic policy is developed, we, as a whole of irrational unbalanced beings, are suddently rational individual making only rational decisions. No my friends, we are not like that. The market is a conglomerate of those mistakes, not a solution to all our problems. And it translates in Speculation. And whichever central bank that thinks that it will take care of itself, well; get ready for a big bang and a tremendous devaluation.

The lack of rationality, and the defects embedded on the social psyche must be modelled. If we do this we are helping people and the world being more productive as we grow under the understanding of our weeknesses. It's all about sustainability really.

If macroeconomic models are correctly modelled the value of money should be balanced with social weeknesses in this aspects, and many others sure. Inflation can help us achieve that. If we concentrate the value of money, so we want more and more, well the system is going to implode! or what where you thinking? we were going to all buy the right property or try to get the biggest mortgage possible?

The race for energy diversification has started

2008-12-12T12:30:00.006+01:00

The Oil era is going, and fast!. The era where oil companies purchased patents for more efficient energy treatments and hide them under the matress is finished. Europe has made the 20:20:20 commitment stablishing 20% of energy will come from renewables on 2020. Great news for energy diversification.

Obama has named Steve Chu, the 1997 Nobel Prize in Physics, as Secretary for Energy of the United States Of America. When the Americans push, they do push hard. They americans acknowledge to have not just a task but a mission. A mission to become the leaders in research in alternative and renewable energies. Great news too.

We all know the way now. Now it's time to run and do the best we all can. Maybe the EU can reach greater commitments as the world moves away from oil. I believe they will do that, progressively, as they are wary we are still dependant on oil and a smooth transition is necessary. But they will accelerate.

Moving away from oil will bring necessary energy efficiency, green technologies, sustainability, cheaper costs, and an ability to inflate the economy minimising prices impact, and reduce the all awaited intrinsec value in money. This is not just important for Europe or US, but for the whole world. Now others will follow. And we all will benefit.

One third of EU electricity must come from renewables on 2020. Great news for Africa.

2008-12-11T12:00:00.002+01:00

An agreement has been reached on the European Union Renewable Energy Directive that could paved the way for the economic bloc to achieve its plans for a 20% renewables contribution to total energy demand and a 20% cut in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, the so-called 20:20:20 plan. The deal, between the European Parliament, the French Presidency, on behalf of the Council, and the European Commission, means that more than one third of EU electricity must come from renewables by 2020.

This translates directly on a progressive decoupling of oil, and will translate in the creation of new energy projects throughout europe. This will translate in cheaper energy and greater efficiency on the overall economy. In the right direction.

Progressively, this will also allow the EU and EU farmers for a reduction of governments support to EU agriculture and farming, letting more fair opportunities to the african market, which can now re-start developing too.

Africa will be progressively more interesting for investors, as our dependency to oil lessens, and thus, now energy and water projects in Africa will start become suddently attractive. Soon, western investors will have farms in africa, which will produce electricity, agriculture, meat, so valuable in a foreseeable incoming inflationary era where alternative energy and real investments will begin to rule. Congratulations to the EU. Doing things well reaches far. As far as Africa. And is great news for Europe!

Managing Inflation: printing money for the right projects can be positive

2008-12-10T17:20:00.004+01:00

Historically inflation has been portraited as negative. But inflation can and has positive attributes too.

Of course, if we print money for the sake of it, it will be bad. As we are printing money without changing our investment pattern, keeping the existing frameworks as they are. If History has shown our approach as faulty, printing money won't help. Unless we change. Eventually all would trigger again and we would have the same problems we had, having lost instrinsec value from the currency. However, if done correctly, inflation has positive aspects worth knowing. Politicians may want to read this blog.

We must understand the opportunity we have when currencies have accumulated value over years of low inflation. We shall use the intrinsic value for projects that work towards tacking our dependencies to resources, which our economy is crying about.
Thus, if our economy is Heavily Dependant on Oil, printing money to finance suitable projects which reduce that dependency, such as alternative energies is constructive and positive. The price imbalances arisen by inflation can be smoothened by the progressive lessening of the dependancy to which the products and prices relate to...oil; such as transport, wages, food.

Still, under that scenario, is still quite bad if we act in isolation, as the positioning of our currency will inmediately suffer, imports will be expensive and our savers will loose. Creditors will love it. The credit sector will start swiftly again. The price pressures from abroad, however, will be high. And for that purpose we must Cooperate. Cooperate amongst countries, globally if possible. Thus if we print money for resource projects unrelated to oil, as globally as possible, cooperating between economies, understanding the globality and size of the credit squeeze, the known consequences of inflation can be sort of balanced away, by investing against the dependancies of our economy helping to control price increases. The positives, well, benefiting of a really needed reduction of weigth of debt, for everyone, and an automatic increase in credit flow throughout the global economy. Globally, its benefits and costs can be shared and ultimately it promotes credit and resource diversification, whilst bringing new energy and food projects alive. New ways to grow, new investments to explore. And it would help many. Africa too.

The future of Formula One is green...

2008-12-09T20:32:00.008+01:00

On the context of a global credit crunch and a global recession, Formula One is continuing its slow transformation. The rapid realisation of the world that the bonus and luxury driven economy has to change has been a direct hit in F1 budgets and strategical brand positioning. The dependency of the global economy on oil is painfully visible on F1 as the oil lobby looses power. This de-stabilising factor brings to the surface the systematic root problems of western economies and F1 needs also to quickly diversify before the world does into a heavy renewable approach. And this time is not good enough to do the same the world does; they need to be first if they intend to use the opportunity they have been given.

The KERS approach is a positive advance but in the wrong direction. KERS is a good step, but a shy one; as it focus more or less on spectaculary and fun more than on strategic positioning. This season would have been a fantastic opportunity for the F1 to go ahead of the world and heavily move towards renewables. In my view, F1 should have agreed a switch into fully renewable vehicles to cement a strong relationship between the car industry engineering and the world issues. If it were technically feasable, cooperating amongst all teams to generate powerful alternative technologies benefits the sport and the industry. However not acting swiftly can loose cache.

Even though I personally thought technically potential was not there, I learn it is. There are extremely powerful electrical vehicles out there, from Lexus or Tesla. If Tesla can do it, why can not F1 players? Or has Lexus or Tesla followed a more efficient way?

In that scenario, if F1 went fully electrical, the impressive F1 budgets would have been surely maintained, probably boosted even higher strengthening the F1 position onto the pinnacle of automotive and engineering research and development, probably bringing new investors and some new players into the equation. Tesla and Toyota maybe will be prepared to participate too in a renewable world. Strategically now F1 has its position compromised, and budgets need to be restricted as their current banking financing looses boost, as they have the wrong focus geared towards maximum performance on oil. The world has failed on that approach. And the F1 knows it. The end of the bonus culture is putting into question current sponsors, their technological heavy dependencies, and even the drivers' extraordinaire salaries are now unaffordable as a credit crunch world tries to crowl forward.

But there are new directions, and new sponsors out there that will happily cooperate and support the sport in a renewable world, within an elegantly balanced and electrical framework, in a world where motivatation towards the global economies swiftly moving into alternative energy is now an extremely marketable tool.

Honda sent the globus sonda signal last year with their car shouting let's go green. And now they are out. There is still time, but the F1 must go fully renewable as soon as possible, or their future is compromised for them by the twist society is taking in a post-cruched oil driven economy, which has taken even them for a ride. If they become renewable and fast, that will ensure the success of the sport, put them in pole position, with intelligence and determination, and drive the world sliding out of a petrol driven economy. And it would stress the resourcefulness of F1 engineering and strategy.

I hope they do. I love the sport. But if not I honestly do not mind watching the next green equivalent. These wonderful Tesla or Lexus electric vehicles racing around a track would be fun to watch. Yes, they may won't sound as great nor be as fast as a F1 yet, but they are impressive technologically and surely races will be fun to watch!

The race to be green is now on. Any takers?

How to kick-start the economy with hyper inflation, global cooperation and printing money for alternative energy investments

2008-12-08T13:38:00.003+01:00

Over the weekend me and a friend were reflecting about a few macroeconomic scenarios on a post-credit crunch economy and what is a likely scenario to move forward. The conclusions of our enriching chat follows. Enjoy!

The way I see where we are, is that up to now, money was valuable. And is still so but not for long. Large debts accumulated on a credit-driven economy have brought the global economy to a stand still. No one can afford much. There is a fenomenal amount of credit to repay and some sectors of the economy already defaulted to do so. This is not individuals or companies. Governments too. And this is happening Globally.

The volatility is fenomenal too. Oil from $60 to $150 and down to $50 in a few months. Goverments are injecting billions on major liquidity and solvency plans to keep credit going. The markets keep sending signals of the dependancies we must get rid of to exit this financial crunch. We depend too much on oil and money has to much value. Reposessions are at highest levels. Central banks are heavily depreciating their interest rates to historically low levels. And hearsays of 0% interest are likely outcomes. Still, repaying this fenomenal debt will take us into a deflationary depression, and therefore that is not an option, if we intend to keep growth and get out of this credit crunch stand still where consumption falling and unemployment rising swiftly we have to use inflation.

The real problem: Money is too valuable

In my humble view the underlying remains; money is too valuable. We have been and still are too greedy and fearful and we need to learn to manage that greediness and fear, economically. Central governments have carefully monitored inflation up to now to ensure prices and dependency to resources are stable to provide sustainable growth. Without a system exception caused by the overweight of the credit and derivatives sector, and within a framework of a conglomerate of rational individuals, that would have been more or less fine. However greediness and fear has distorted the meaning of money into something with value, when intrinsecally, it ought not to, to protect from this extreme human man states.

Inflation needs to be set to tackle greed and fear as we're not rationally balanced beings

Inflation is there to help to re-value money where it belongs, and in hyperinflation convert it onto a value-less numeric indexing set to aid transactions and comerce and promote economic growth and prosperity.

Current capitalistic models have assumed the rationality of the individual and we have promoted competition expecting the markets to manage it in a sort of smooth way. However, giving value to money has eventually triggered a major bubble, dividing society further between rich and poor. Some of us have been more or less successful in accumulating it whilst following some routes we may have not followed otherwise. Becoming traders, brokers, working in financial centres.. has been a way to achieve this sought after value, despite we may have provided value in much more creative and unique ways.

However money had so much value we felt we shall pursue such opportunities. We've always wanted more in our wish to add value, and greed, and thus speculation, and also fear, has eventually brought us to eventually blow the greed bubble, taking a lot of value in the process and creating anxieties and fear within us. Markets are based on our decisions. And we, humans, do not act rationally if money has got value. Greed and fear needs to be managed for us, and inflation is just there to help us.

We are are greedy, and also fearful, and this will very much has influenced our behaviour and investment decisions.

We can now all see that in doing so we have lost the opportunity of creating a lot of real value.

Inflation is a tool we can learn to master to manage greed and fear, removing it or reducing it from the macroeconomic framework. The greater the inflation the less intrinsic value the money has. We remove the value from money via hyper inflation and the economy is no longer centered on exploting market opportunities, but on creating new opportunities seeking to invest depreciative cash . Pre-hyper-inflationary mortgages and loans will be fenomenally easier to repay, removing the fear of society on repaying these debts, whilst holding the money will become in fact the main problem. Investing in Gold and valuable resources won't help as that won't "generate" either any value, and won't need to cover for fear or greed, just for whatever value-added applications these metals may be usable for.

Diversifying energy dependencies to ease hyper-inflationary pressures:investing in renewables

But for this to work there are a few major points that need fixing. Progressively and carefully. This is a major evolutional change in the global economies, towards what I sort of call a "holistic economy". Money will flow, the economy will grow, dependencies will be tackled, and opportunities will be there, for all of us. Global energy projects will arise, and money will be pumped in globally to finance these. On the negative side, prices will continually grow, and in my humble view, unemployment and education will become critical issue on a generally highly skilled and technically driven economy. However this can be gradually processed whilst balancing monetary mass with its pricing effect.

Importantly we must resolve a few points before we start with fenomenally ambitious multilateral projects.

Needless to say, we are still an oil driven economy and we need to be realistic that oil needs to be at a certain price range to ensure suficient availability (for now, so extraction is possible at the north see and so on). We need to heavily progressively invest on alternative energies. And we have to do this cooperatively and globally. Politically joining forces with the oil producing countries, sharing technology and investing together, so we do it right minimising conflicts which would slow us down and cause other problems.

The progressive addition on the energy markets of alternative sources will, also progressively, bring value from air, water, sun, removing the dependency of global economy to oil frameworks, creating a range of compatible energy sources which amongst all of them diversify risks, lower energy prices, and de-centralise system power centres. This is a critical requirement to be balanced with inflation, so local economies don't suffer in excess pricewise. Such as oil has traditionally been. In the context of hyper inflation, and understading this scenario, governments can start major projects to develop alternative energy sources, power plants, de-salinization plants seldomly or jointly employing many people and aiding for progressively reducing oil prices and continue with the increase in inflation as oil looses importance.

We need to co-operate whether we like it or not!; globally

To achieve this, we need to co-operate and work in a more "open-source" way. We have no choice here. Either we work together or we are condemned to a static economy, and a chain reaction of currency devaluations that can bring currency markets to volatilties never seen before and even tougher consequences. Global Cooperation is likely to be a critical points as we have to work together. Global cooperation is key to maintain an equilibrium between currencies and economies that participate in these hyper-inflationary process. Cooperation does not mean we won't compete, but it is a requirement to not create further imbalances. I believe governments already have understood the relevance of joining forces on this, looking globally at the current scenarios.

In this scenario, as the money globally and progressively looses its value, in accordance to inflation acceleration, so will speculation reduce. We will have greater interest on concentrating our efforts in obtaining real value from real investments. Real investments will arise, using the resources, such as un-used fields to develop sun-powered fields, or wind-mill fields or others. Holding the cash will loose value. Buying gold, interestingly, will also loose it.

As we act in this cooperative way, and invest in alternative resourcing, conflicts will reduce, opportunities will increase. Less energy dependencies will, interestingly, help reducing conflicts, nearly always based on resources, and will promote real growth in real value. This will bring a lot of stability and remove a lot of stress and anxiety from the global economy. Cooperation will bring value. Technology will be an important asset, determination to create new projects will too. In a holistic manner. Less conflicts, better handling of human behaviour will bring real global value.

A more caring world

Socially, and for this to work, we will have to be more caring with our peers. THis is important to ensure we help those who are out of or cannot work, or need help, so conflicts do not arise and people are happy with the care governments provide particularly whilst this starts happening. This will permit removing fear from the inflationary pressures. In a heavily inflationary pressured world, being inefficient will be a problem and people without jobs or determination will need our help. Governments can develop this sectors in the hyper-inflationary transformation too. The number of opportunities, small projects arising will provide a range of de-centralised and creative opportunities never seen before, and new and interesting and balance projects that can motivate most to exploit new value. And we will have to take care of the ones that can't.

In a growing inflationary world, we will have to look in what way we can add value as money won't be longer be an asset but an identifier to acquire and make investments. The credits on investments today will needless to say be extremely benefited by the incoming inflationary pressures, in accordance to the degree that this happens. That will take us really out of the credit crunch.

House Market recovers with hyper-inflation

The house market will re-start thanks to this hyper inflationary pressures, at a very high pricing rate. Prices will be incresing, money will swap hands swiftly, and old credits, despite growingly expensive to repay will be based on cheap valuations made in times of no or very low inflation. Thus, if one manages to keep property through this current crunch, one could recover the value on property investments soon after. However there are other demand related factors such as relocation, industry changes and others where people will, under my view, change priorities about location, and large cities will become less populated.

In this context, Stock markets will see speculative actions lessen and thus reducting volatility

Stock market will recover its stability, and speculation will reduce its reason to be, in accordance to hyper-inflation levels. In their limit, when money is no longer usable to concentrate value, the motivation to speculate also is lost and the markets will again work well, although trading at a much lower volumes and prices than the great financial boom of the last few years. High inflation will also motivate real investments and not speculative ones. This are prone to be highly regulated too and derivatives markets will be thin.

Don't follow the money: Work on what you are passionate about

Jobs which provide real value will pay better than they do now, and monies earned will suffice to pay rents ,mortgages, transport and food inflationary pressures. If we decouple from oil that is. People will de-centralise their jobs from working on what is thought to be value providing sectors, - such stock market, trading and so on...- towards doing what they are good at, what they want to do. Even if it's creating an open source framework or re-generating skiing resort. Creativity will hold value, Knowledge sharing will be valuable too, technological advances will develop, and growth will increase in a new cooperative way. The whole economy will drive towards a more reasonable approach and people will share more, be less stressed and anxious. Even movies on tv will move from extreme crime reports to more constructive and positive value in their own way.

Progressive decrease on dependency on oil will help sustain inflationary pressures on goods, and smoothen the transition out of the crunch. Price pressures will be high and will be high and need careful balancing. Investment and interest on developing the third world such as Africa will florish, and keep high. Food will be there for all to produce in an inflationary world, with power and water availability being essential.

Gold, Diamonds loose

Less dependancy on a single power resource will bring power stability. Diamonds, gold will loose their egoistic intrinsec value as money won't be an asset as it used to be. A more stable world is possible with opportunities for all. And a more caring world.

Renewable investments

Examples of this will translate into Power plants, wind-mills, de-salinisation plants will be good businesses and ideas which will provide value whereever applied, and will help developing areas which, on a money driven economy, were not important. This will bring development to areas that were never interesting before. Global governments will join forces on large engineering projects, probably in partnership between several countries such as the space industry has done recently. Now having land, ideas to create and make projects which provide real returns will be important in a inflationary economy. Ecology and energetic balance will be important, as well as cooperation and transparency.

The value goes out of money

As the value goes out of money, it will also go out of anything which does not provide value. In my humble view, gold will no longer be the answer as power concentration will be no longer of interst, in the context of a global hyper inflation and decoupling from energy resources dependency. Cash certainly won't have much value but for cash flow purposes in the short term. Value will exist in building projects, in creating jobs, in participating in development projects which add value to the global economy. This will allow credit markets to flow again.

How I see it, rightly or wrongly, the opportunities are fenomenal, and the world will be changing for the better. Managing hyper-inflation will permit to scape out of this global credit hole whilst wonderfully removing the value out of money. But to do that we have to devaluate money globally, cooperating, and we have to work together towards a sustainable world with less dependencies to specific energy resources.

And if not?

If we don't cooperate, I foresee we could struggle a lot and conflicts and fear would keep rising. In that context, inflationary pressures will de-stablise single economies, currencies distortions, and gold would then be a extremely valuable asset, in a greedy world where money will hold value.

But I believe the former will happen, and we'll evolve the economic tools to manage greed and fear out of the economy. And that will be a great change.